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              重溫經典-巴菲特:《Buy American. I AM.》
              發布時間:2022-03-27 10:49

               2008年10月16號,巴菲特在《紐約時報》上發表文章——《Buy American. I AM.》,全文如下:

              THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad。Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher。In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary。
              So 。。。I‘ve been buying American stocks。This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds。(This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy。) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities。
              A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful。And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors。To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions。But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nations many sound companies make no sense。These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have。But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now。
              Let me be clear on one point: I can‘t predict the short-term movements of the stock market。I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now。What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up。So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over。
              A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932。Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D。Roosevelt took office in March 1933。By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent。Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific。The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned。Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank。In short, bad news is an investor‘s best friend。It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price。
              Over the long term, the stock market news will be good。In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts;the Depression;a dozen or so recessions and financial panics;oil shocks;a flu epidemic;and the resignation of a disgraced president。Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497。
              You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain。But some investors did。The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy。
              Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable。They shouldnt。They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value。Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts。
              Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree。Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later。In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzkys advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been。”
              I don‘t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term。Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was。” Today my money and my mouth both say equities。
              所以說——買入美國,正當時。我說的是我的個人賬戶。這場危機爆發之前,我的個人賬戶沒投資任何股票,只持有美國國債。(這里說的是我的個人賬戶,不是我個人持有的伯克希爾哈撒韋股票,我持有的伯克希爾哈撒韋股票將全部用于慈善事業。)如果股價還這么便宜,我的個人賬戶中的股票倉位將很快達到 100%。
              我買股票遵循一個簡單的規律:眾人貪婪,我恐懼;眾人恐懼,我貪婪。顯而易見,當前的市場中充斥著恐慌情緒,就連經驗豐富的投資者都感到了恐懼的侵襲。一方面,美國有些公司處于競爭劣勢、背負著高杠桿,投資者對此類公司保持警惕無可厚非;另一方面,美國有很多公司經營狀況良好、長期前景光明,投資者對這些公司感到恐慌毫無道理。從短期來看,好公司暫時陷入困難、盈利出現一時的下降完全是正常情況。把眼光拉長到 5 年、10 年、20 年以后,大多數美國大公司都將創造新的盈利記錄。(注:這句話也適用于中國的好公司)
              有一點,我一定要講清楚:我無法預測股市的短期波動。一個月以后,一年以后,股市是能漲呢,還是能跌呢?我根本不知道。我只知道,在情緒翻多或經濟好轉之前,股市一定早已上漲,甚至是大漲了。如果你等待知更鳥的到來,你將錯過整個春天。(If you wait for the robins, spring will be over.)
              回顧幾段歷史:大蕭條時期,1932 年 7 月 8 日,道指跌到 41 點,創下歷史最低。此后,經濟狀況繼續惡化。等到 1933 年 3 月富蘭克林 D. 羅斯福就任總統,美國經濟開始止跌回升,美國股市已上漲 30%。還有二戰初期,美國在歐洲和太平洋戰事不利,1942 年,美國股市觸底。等到后來同盟國扭轉局勢,股市早已大漲。還有 1980 年代初期,當通貨膨脹肆虐、破產潮來襲之時,正是買入股票的最佳時機?傊,壞消息是投資者的好朋友。它幫你創造機會,讓你打折買入一份美國的未來。(注:這句話也適用于中國股市)
              從長期來看,股市給投資者帶來的一定是好消息。20 世紀,美國經歷了兩次世界大戰,還在許多其他軍事沖突中付出了沉重的代價。美國經歷了大蕭條,還經歷了其他十幾次大大小小的經濟衰退和金融危機。美國經歷過石油危機、經歷過流感疫情、經歷過總統因丑聞而辭職。然而,道指還是從 66 點上漲到 11,497 點。
              在今后十年,股票幾乎必然跑贏現金,或許是遠遠跑贏。目前,有一部分投資者手中緊握現金,他們以為自己有能力在更好的時機到來之后,再把現金投資出去。這些投資者等待好消息帶來的鼓勵,他們應該聽聽韋恩·格雷茨基 (Wayne Gretzky) 的建議:“盯著球現在的位置,只能撲空。球將要去哪,我就去哪。”(I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.)
              我不愿空談股市。我再次強調,我不知道如何預測股市短期走勢。有一家新開業的餐廳,位于一座銀行大廈,它打出的廣告是“Put your mouth where your money was.”(譯注:這句廣告詞來自短語 put your money where your mouth is,意思是“言出必行、用行動證明自己的話、說到做到”)我愿學這家餐廳。今天,我說要買股票,我也用自己的錢買了股票。
              2007年初源于美國的次貸危機(subprime crisis),迅速開始席卷美國、歐盟和日本等世界主要金融市場,引發全球性經濟危機。在此期間,諸多聲名煊赫的公司宣布破產,比如貝爾斯登、雷曼兄弟、北電網絡公司、通用公司等。美國道瓊斯工業指數在半年內迅速從14279(2007年10月11日)點暴跌至6440點(2009年3月9日),跌幅54.9%。巴菲特發表文章的2008年10月16日是8979點,一直到5個月后的2009年3月,美國股市真正到了底點并開始反彈。在此之后,美國股市經歷了歷史上最長的牛市,從2008年10月16日到10多年后的現在,道瓊斯工業指數最多漲了359%。
              這些收益全部來自于他在次貸危機期間所做的救助性質的投資活動:對瑪氏糖果旗下箭牌公司65億美元的貸款,獲利38億美元。投資高盛集團50億美元的優先股,獲利17.5億美元。投資美國銀行50億美元的優先股,獲利9億美元。對通用電氣30億美元的注資,獲利12億美元。購買陶氏化學30億美元股票,獲 利10億美元。對瑞士再保險集團投資27億美元,獲利14億美元?偼顿Y額高達252億美元,總收益超100億美元,目前仍在不斷增長中。